AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 13

Bakersfield Condors at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Bakersfield Condors
4:1
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

BAKTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
49%51%
xG
2.32.8
High danger
86
Chances
118
Shots
1923

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal23
11Scoring chances8
8High-danger chances6
2.29Expected goals2.79

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–84–33–30.9–1.0
2nd5–93–42–20.6–1.3
3rd7–64–13–10.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
23
Saves
22
Allowed
1
xGA
2.79
GSAx
+1.79
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
19
Saves
15
Allowed
4
xGA
2.29
GSAx
-1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:11Curtis McKenzie (0–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 11:19Penalty
  • 1st 13:21Sam Poulin (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 1st 19:12Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 2:47Seth Griffith (2–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 6:24Penalty
  • 2nd 6:31Penalty
  • 2nd 9:51Penalty
  • 2nd 16:43Penalty
  • 3rd 0:26Penalty
  • 3rd 0:26Penalty
  • 3rd 7:44Penalty
  • 3rd 10:14Penalty
  • 3rd 10:14Penalty
  • 3rd 10:14Penalty
  • 3rd 14:27Penalty
  • 3rd 15:49Penalty
  • 3rd 17:56Daniel D’Amato (3–1)empty net · high · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 18:31Roby Järventie (4–1)empty net · low · 56 ft · beat Rémi Poirier