AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 13

Manitoba Moose at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Manitoba Moose
2:7
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

MBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
62%38%
xG
4.83.4
High danger
87
Chances
1714
Shots
4432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal32
17Scoring chances14
8High-danger chances7
4.81Expected goals3.41

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–135–42–21.3–1.2
2nd15–125–94–51.9–1.8
3rd16–77–12–01.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−50:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB50:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arsenii Sergeev
Shots faced
44
Saves
42
Allowed
2
xGA
4.81
GSAx
+2.81
Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
32
Saves
25
Allowed
7
xGA
3.41
GSAx
-3.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:14Penalty
  • 1st 0:14Penalty
  • 1st 5:13Penalty
  • 1st 7:07Brayden Yager (1–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 27 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 1st 8:27Penalty
  • 1st 15:27Penalty
  • 2nd 1:03Justin Kirkland (1–1)high · snap · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 4:41Aydar Suniev (1–2)medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 5:22Aydar Suniev (1–3)high · snap · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 8:07Sam Morton (1–4)medium · wrist · 32 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 17:32Penalty
  • 2nd 19:04Justin Kirkland (1–5)5v4 · high · tip · 9 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 19:47Clark Bishop (1–6)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 0:13Penalty
  • 3rd 7:06Walker Duehr (2–6)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 3rd 10:23Penalty
  • 3rd 10:23Penalty
  • 3rd 13:35Artem Grushnikov (2–7)low · wrist · 40 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis