Rochester Americans at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Rochester Americans

0:3

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

ROCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 1.53.0
High danger: 23
Chances: 411
Shots: 2627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal27

4Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances3

1.52Expected goals2.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	2–5	2–2	0.7–1.6
2nd	8–10	2–5	0–1	0.6–1.1
3rd	8–4	0–1	0–0	0.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.99
GSAx: -0.01

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 26
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.52
GSAx: +1.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:37Penalty
1st 2:37Penalty
1st 2:44Logan Shaw (0–1)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 11:04Penalty
1st 14:43Penalty
1st 14:43Penalty
1st 18:10Penalty
1st 18:10Penalty
1st 18:33Penalty
1st 19:15Penalty
2nd 6:08Penalty
2nd 11:37Penalty
2nd 15:08Penalty
2nd 16:38Penalty
2nd 19:18Marc Johnstone (0–2)low · 31 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 5:20Penalty
3rd 14:03Penalty
3rd 14:03Penalty
3rd 17:27Alex Nylander (0–3)empty net · medium · 7 ft · beat Devon Levi