Laval Rocket at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Laval Rocket

4:3

Final / SO

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

LAVSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 2.33.8
High danger: 17
Chances: 718
Shots: 2831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal31

7Scoring chances18

1High-danger chances7

2.28Expected goals3.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–14	1–7	0–3	0.3–1.8
2nd	5–9	0–7	0–2	0.2–1.2
3rd	17–6	6–3	1–2	1.6–0.6
OT	3–2	0–1	0–0	0.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:41	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.75
GSAx: +0.75

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:04Ethan Gauthier (0–1)low · 28 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 6:53Penalty
1st 10:06Penalty
1st 13:41Penalty
1st 14:57Penalty
1st 15:32Owen Beck (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 16:30Penalty
1st 16:47Jakob Pelletier (1–2)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 2:51Penalty
3rd 5:31Lucas Condotta (2–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 9:20Samuel Blais (3–2)medium · 30 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 17:37Spencer Kersten (3–3)high · 23 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
OT 1:14Penalty
OT 4:58Penalty