Utica Comets at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Utica Comets

3:6

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

UTCSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 3.32.9
High danger: 25
Chances: 1210
Shots: 3628

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal28

12Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

3.31Expected goals2.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	3–4	1–3	0.9–1.6
2nd	11–10	5–4	1–2	1.4–1.0
3rd	15–5	4–2	0–0	1.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	8:32	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: +0.31

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 22
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -3.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:26Penalty
1st 2:26Penalty
1st 16:16Dylan Peterson (0–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 18:00Penalty
2nd 1:42Penalty
2nd 1:47Chris Wagner (0–2)5v4 · high · 42 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 12:02Julien Gauthier (0–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 3:58Penalty
3rd 5:07Brian Halonen (1–3)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 8:16Jonathan Gruden (2–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 11:31Chris Wagner (2–4)medium · 21 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 12:30Angus Crookshank (3–4)medium · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 18:32Chris Wagner (3–5)empty net · low · 37 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 19:16Thomas Bordeleau (3–6)empty net · medium · 24 ft · beat Jakub Málek