AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 14

Belleville Senators at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Belleville Senators
6:3
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

BELHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
2.41.6
High danger
32
Chances
77
Shots
3018

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal18
7Scoring chances7
3High-danger chances2
2.42Expected goals1.60

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–80–20–00.4–0.5
2nd9–33–22–10.8–0.4
3rd13–74–31–11.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER214:23 of the 3rd5:375:37+0.025 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitch Gibson
Shots faced
30
Saves
24
Allowed
6
xGA
2.42
GSAx
-3.58
Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
18
Saves
15
Allowed
3
xGA
1.60
GSAx
-1.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:49Ilya Protas (0–1)low · 25 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 11:05Penalty
  • 1st 17:43Djibril Touré (1–1)low · 39 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 1st 19:16Penalty
  • 1st 19:16Penalty
  • 2nd 3:12Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–2)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 4:21Mark Duarte (2–2)high · 8 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 6:37Penalty
  • 2nd 10:13Xavier Bourgault (3–2)high · 5 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 13:41Penalty
  • 2nd 15:10Graeme Clarke (4–2)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 17:17Penalty
  • 2nd 17:17Penalty
  • 3rd 9:11Penalty
  • 3rd 10:13Bogdan Trineyev (4–3)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 11:01Penalty
  • 3rd 11:36Penalty
  • 3rd 11:59Penalty
  • 3rd 14:23Hayden Hodgson (5–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 3rd 17:51Keean Washkurak (6–3)empty net · low · 37 ft · beat Mitch Gibson