AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 14

Milwaukee Admirals at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Milwaukee Admirals
5:2
Final
Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

MILGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
83%17%
xG
2.21.2
High danger
41
Chances
114
Shots
2418

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
GR above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal18
11Scoring chances4
4High-danger chances1
2.25Expected goals1.20

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–73–21–10.7–0.6
2nd4–62–10–00.3–0.4
3rd13–56–13–01.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

GR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
GR310:48 of the 3rd9:129:12+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa
Shots faced
24
Saves
19
Allowed
5
xGA
2.25
GSAx
-2.75
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
18
Saves
16
Allowed
2
xGA
1.20
GSAx
-0.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:36Penalty
  • 1st 4:07Jordan Oesterle (1–0)low · slap · 55 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 1st 5:40Cole O’Hara (2–0)medium · backhand · 24 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 1st 7:02Penalty
  • 1st 7:02Penalty
  • 1st 7:02Penalty
  • 1st 7:02Penalty
  • 1st 8:47William Dufour (2–1)5v4 · medium · snap · 37 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 10:00Penalty
  • 1st 11:21Isaac Ratcliffe (3–1)5v4 · medium · backhand · 13 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 0:11Penalty
  • 2nd 9:36Kevin Gravel (4–1)low · wrist · 61 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 11:59Penalty
  • 2nd 12:04Eduards Tralmaks (4–2)5v4 · low · slap · 57 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 16:11Penalty
  • 2nd 17:39Penalty
  • 3rd 5:35Penalty
  • 3rd 10:48Ryder Rolston (5–2)high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 15:34Penalty