AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 14

Bakersfield Condors at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Bakersfield Condors
2:6
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

BAKTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
32%68%
xG
3.24.0
High danger
59
Chances
1020
Shots
3928

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal28
10Scoring chances20
5High-danger chances9
3.23Expected goals3.97

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–105–73–31.4–1.2
2nd8–103–81–30.7–1.5
3rd14–82–51–31.1–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−60:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK60:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
39
Saves
37
Allowed
2
xGA
3.23
GSAx
+1.23
Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
18
Saves
15
Allowed
3
xGA
2.75
GSAx
-0.25
Calvin Pickard
Shots faced
10
Saves
7
Allowed
3
xGA
1.22
GSAx
-1.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:22Cameron Hughes (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 1st 1:17Antonio Stranges (0–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 1st 6:28Penalty
  • 1st 6:28Penalty
  • 1st 6:28Penalty
  • 1st 12:09Penalty
  • 1st 18:20Harrison Scott (0–3)high · 17 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 2nd 3:10Penalty
  • 2nd 4:01Matthew Seminoff (0–4)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 6:17Penalty
  • 2nd 9:37Penalty
  • 2nd 9:37Penalty
  • 2nd 12:06Penalty
  • 2nd 12:06Penalty
  • 2nd 12:06Penalty
  • 2nd 12:06Michael Karow (0–5)medium · 19 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 19:08Penalty
  • 2nd 19:08Penalty
  • 2nd 19:16Matthew Seminoff (0–6)5v4 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 4:10Penalty
  • 3rd 4:10Penalty
  • 3rd 12:03Penalty
  • 3rd 12:03Penalty
  • 3rd 12:03Penalty
  • 3rd 12:03Penalty
  • 3rd 12:03Penalty
  • 3rd 12:03Penalty
  • 3rd 18:08Alec Regula (1–6)low · 29 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 19:09Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Alec Regula (2–6)5v4 · high · rebound · 39 ft · beat Rémi Poirier