AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 14

Colorado Eagles at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Colorado Eagles
1:2
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

COLSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
58%42%
xG
2.82.3
High danger
54
Chances
912
Shots
2922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal22
9Scoring chances12
5High-danger chances4
2.80Expected goals2.32

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–43–21–10.7–0.4
2nd11–92–51–01.1–0.8
3rd12–94–53–31.0–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek
Shots faced
29
Saves
28
Allowed
1
xGA
2.80
GSAx
+1.80
Kyle Keyser
Shots faced
22
Saves
20
Allowed
2
xGA
2.32
GSAx
+0.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:36Penalty
  • 1st 9:33Nikita Nesterenko (0–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 1st 13:21Penalty
  • 1st 16:39Penalty
  • 1st 16:39Penalty
  • 2nd 3:39Penalty
  • 2nd 3:39Penalty
  • 2nd 12:17Penalty
  • 2nd 16:24Penalty
  • 2nd 16:58Valtteri Puustinen (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 42 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 2nd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 5:32Penalty
  • 3rd 10:18Tristan Luneau (1–2)low · 26 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 3rd 12:57Penalty