AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 14

San Jose Barracuda at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Jose Barracuda
4:6
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SJTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
3.64.6
High danger
710
Chances
1919
Shots
2739

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal39
19Scoring chances19
7High-danger chances10
3.65Expected goals4.59

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–181–91–50.5–2.3
2nd11–88–24–21.6–0.8
3rd11–1310–82–31.5–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
38
Saves
33
Allowed
5
xGA
4.55
GSAx
-0.45
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
3.65
GSAx
-0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:22Cameron Hebig (0–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 4:59Penalty
  • 1st 6:28Austin Poganski (0–2)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 6:50Filip Bystedt (1–2)low · 26 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 11:43Penalty
  • 1st 13:18Penalty
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 19:35Daniil But (1–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 5:01Quentin Musty (2–3)low · 24 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 7:00Colin White (3–3)high · 20 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 14:49Penalty
  • 2nd 17:21Penalty
  • 2nd 18:49Penalty
  • 2nd 19:59Filip Bystedt (4–3)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 2:08Andrew Agozzino (4–4)high · 14 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 2:43Penalty
  • 3rd 9:47Penalty
  • 3rd 13:15Penalty
  • 3rd 14:36Penalty
  • 3rd 14:36Andrew Agozzino (4–5)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 19:44Daniil But (4–6)empty net · low · 47 ft