Henderson Silver Knights at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Henderson Silver Knights

4:1

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

HSKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.03.0
High danger: 35
Chances: 69
Shots: 2330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal30

6Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances5

1.97Expected goals2.97

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–9	1–1	0–0	0.3–0.6
2nd	12–15	3–7	2–5	1.1–2.0
3rd	8–6	2–1	1–0	0.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: +1.97

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -2.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:04Penalty
2nd 2:41Joe Fleming (1–0)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 14:45Penalty
2nd 14:45Penalty
2nd 16:15Arshdeep Bains (1–1)high · 15 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 1:37Trevor Connelly (2–1)low · 39 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 9:47Penalty
3rd 10:12Raphael Lavoie (3–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 17:13Tanner Laczynski (4–1)empty net · medium · 32 ft · beat Jiří Patera