Manitoba Moose at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Manitoba Moose

4:2

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

MBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 3.54.2
High danger: 44
Chances: 1212
Shots: 3746

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal46

12Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances4

3.50Expected goals4.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–14	3–4	1–3	1.0–1.7
2nd	13–10	5–3	2–0	1.5–0.7
3rd	11–22	4–5	1–1	1.0–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 46
Saves: 44
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.24
GSAx: +2.24

Arsenii Sergeev

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.50
GSAx: -0.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:09Penalty
1st 11:10Penalty
1st 14:57Isaak Phillips (1–0)low · wrist · 55 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
1st 15:50Penalty
1st 15:50Penalty
1st 19:22Penalty
1st 19:27Justin Kirkland (1–1)5v4 · grade A · tip · rebound · 5 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 11:11Jaret Anderson-Dolan (2–1)low · tip · 10 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 0:36Penalty
3rd 4:59Carter Wilkie (2–2)low · tip · 27 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 14:23Dylan Anhorn (3–2)low · wrist · 31 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 18:57David Gustafsson (4–2)empty net · medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty