Belleville Senators at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Belleville Senators

5:2

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

BELHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 4.03.1
High danger: 101
Chances: 1712
Shots: 3440

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal40

17Scoring chances12

10High-danger chances1

3.97Expected goals3.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–14	4–3	4–1	1.2–1.1
2nd	11–12	6–5	2–0	1.3–1.1
3rd	13–14	7–4	4–0	1.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: +1.10

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.97
GSAx: -1.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:05Penalty
1st 13:51Penalty
1st 15:02Graeme Clarke (1–0)5v4 · high · 45 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 15:59Penalty
1st 18:07Olle Lycksell (2–0)high · 26 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 4:10Sonny Milano (2–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 7:55Penalty
2nd 7:55Penalty
2nd 8:34Xavier Bourgault (3–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 11:22Landen Hookey (4–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 16:22Penalty
2nd 16:22Penalty
2nd 17:24Tomas Hamara (5–1)high · 14 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 4:21Penalty
3rd 9:55Penalty
3rd 9:55Penalty
3rd 10:37Penalty
3rd 13:27Alex Suzdalev (5–2)medium · rebound · 16 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen