AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 15

San Jose Barracuda at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Jose Barracuda
4:5
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SJTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
68%32%
xG
5.73.6
High danger
74
Chances
2012
Shots
4822

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0246P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

48Shots on goal22
20Scoring chances12
7High-danger chances4
5.74Expected goals3.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st22–67–12–12.5–0.8
2nd10–76–42–01.5–0.8
3rd16–97–73–31.7–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
48
Saves
44
Allowed
4
xGA
5.74
GSAx
+1.74
Jakub Skarek
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
3.55
GSAx
-1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:20Jalen Luypen (0–1)low · 14 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 1st 7:18Penalty
  • 1st 7:18Penalty
  • 1st 8:43Maveric Lamoureux (0–2)grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 1st 16:21Penalty
  • 1st 17:51Penalty
  • 1st 18:17Jimmy Huntington (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 5:38Penalty
  • 2nd 8:58Brendan Hoffmann (2–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 11:19Lucas Vanroboys (3–2)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 16:27Quentin Musty (4–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 1:51Daniil But (4–3)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 3:03Andrew Agozzino (4–4)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 5:50Maveric Lamoureux (4–5)medium · 30 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 6:00Penalty
  • 3rd 17:19Penalty