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‹ Sunday, March 15

Henderson Silver Knights at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Henderson Silver Knights
7:5
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

HSKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
2.13.9
High danger
36
Chances
817
Shots
2034

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal34
8Scoring chances17
3High-danger chances6
2.06Expected goals3.90

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–123–61–20.8–1.3
2nd5–82–21–00.6–0.7
3rd8–143–91–40.7–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB212:09 of the 3rd7:517:38+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cameron Whitehead
Shots faced
34
Saves
29
Allowed
5
xGA
3.90
GSAx
-1.10
Ty Young
Shots faced
20
Saves
13
Allowed
7
xGA
2.06
GSAx
-4.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:49Jayden Grubbe (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 1st 5:46Nick Poisson (0–2)grade A · rebound · 27 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 1st 7:15Viliam Kmec (1–2)low · 21 ft · beat Ty Young
  • 1st 9:51Penalty
  • 1st 9:51Penalty
  • 1st 12:47Ben Hemmerling (2–2)high · 19 ft · beat Ty Young
  • 1st 14:13Ben Hemmerling (3–2)low · 28 ft · beat Ty Young
  • 1st 17:53Penalty
  • 1st 17:53Penalty
  • 1st 18:34Penalty
  • 2nd 8:31Ben Hemmerling (4–2)low · 38 ft · beat Ty Young
  • 2nd 11:00Penalty
  • 2nd 19:29Penalty
  • 2nd 19:29Penalty
  • 2nd 19:29Penalty
  • 2nd 19:29Penalty
  • 3rd 1:08Ty Mueller (4–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 3rd 1:54Penalty
  • 3rd 3:28Chase Stillman (4–4)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 3rd 7:29Dylan Coghlan (5–4)low · 63 ft · beat Ty Young
  • 3rd 9:14Penalty
  • 3rd 11:18Kai Uchacz (6–4)high · 8 ft · beat Ty Young
  • 3rd 14:39Penalty
  • 3rd 16:43Danila Klimovich (6–5)low · 40 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 3rd 19:17Ben Hemmerling (7–5)empty net · medium · 17 ft · beat Ty Young