Cleveland Monsters at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Cleveland Monsters

2:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CLETORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 3.02.3
High danger: 43
Chances: 810
Shots: 2825

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances3

3.02Expected goals2.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	4–2	3–1	1.2–0.5
2nd	6–9	1–3	0–0	0.5–0.8
3rd	10–10	3–5	1–2	1.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.02
GSAx: +1.02

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: -1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:20Penalty
1st 5:19Zach Aston-Reese (1–0)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 11:36Penalty
1st 14:16Penalty
2nd 1:53Penalty
2nd 2:25Alex Nylander (1–1)5v4 · low · 32 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
2nd 13:06Penalty
3rd 12:27Luca Del Bel Belluz (2–1)low · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 12:59Ryan Tverberg (2–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
3rd 14:26Logan Shaw (2–3)low · 166 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
3rd 17:44Alex Nylander (2–4)empty net · medium · 24 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov