AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, March 17

Henderson Silver Knights at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Henderson Silver Knights
6:5
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

HSKCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
4.33.9
High danger
86
Chances
1612
Shots
3440

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 34% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal40
16Scoring chances12
8High-danger chances6
4.28Expected goals3.86

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–134–51–31.1–1.4
2nd17–88–25–12.2–0.6
3rd7–194–52–21.0–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY35:51 of the 3rd14:0911:54+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
40
Saves
35
Allowed
5
xGA
3.86
GSAx
-1.14
Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
34
Saves
28
Allowed
6
xGA
4.28
GSAx
-1.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:13Raphael Lavoie (1–0)medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 0:57Martin Frk (1–1)low · 36 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 1:19Martin Frk (1–2)low · slap · 42 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 4:12Penalty
  • 1st 7:17Raphael Lavoie (2–2)medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 11:25Martin Frk (2–3)low · wrist · 37 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 15:42Penalty
  • 2nd 2:14Penalty
  • 2nd 9:29Penalty
  • 2nd 10:18Mitch McLain (3–3)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 12:58Penalty
  • 2nd 17:14Kai Uchacz (4–3)low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 0:57Jeremy Davies (5–3)grade A · backhand · 35 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 5:39Penalty
  • 3rd 5:51Kai Uchacz (6–3)5v4 · high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 14:18Clark Bishop (6–4)grade A · backhand · rebound · 4 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 14:41Martin Frk (6–5)low · slap · 51 ft · beat Carl Lindbom