Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals

4:0

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 2.12.4
High danger: 53
Chances: 77
Shots: 2332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances3

2.11Expected goals2.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	3–1	2–0	1.0–0.7
2nd	10–13	2–3	1–1	0.6–0.8
3rd	6–8	2–3	2–2	0.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 32
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: +2.44

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: -1.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:04Tanner Molendyk (1–0)low · 57 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 6:58Oasiz Wiesblatt (2–0)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 12:24Penalty
1st 15:54Penalty
1st 15:54Penalty
1st 18:02Penalty
2nd 16:20Penalty
3rd 4:50Penalty
3rd 12:30Jordan Oesterle (3–0)low · 54 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:01Penalty
3rd 19:49Oasiz Wiesblatt (4–0)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic