Hartford Wolf Pack at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hartford Wolf Pack

5:2

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HFDCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 2.41.9
High danger: 42
Chances: 87
Shots: 2722

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal22

8Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances2

2.35Expected goals1.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–5	4–2	2–1	0.9–0.4
2nd	8–10	3–2	1–0	0.8–0.8
3rd	9–7	1–3	1–1	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -0.13

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.82
GSAx: -1.18

Kirill Gerasimyuk

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 5
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.53
GSAx: -1.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:41Bryce McConnell-Barker (1–0)high · 22 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
1st 2:29Penalty
1st 12:09Dylan Roobroeck (2–0)low · 49 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
1st 16:04Penalty
1st 17:49Adam Sýkora (3–0)4v5 · high · 7 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 1:08Dylan Roobroeck (4–0)medium · 23 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 7:03Penalty
2nd 9:57Jackson Dorrington (5–0)low · 64 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 14:50Penalty
2nd 14:50Penalty
2nd 14:50Jack Devine (5–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 0:39Penalty
3rd 4:37Penalty
3rd 18:27Noah Gregor (5–2)low · 19 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 20:00Penalty