Abbotsford Canucks at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

1:3

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

ABBONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 1.72.7
High danger: 08
Chances: 512
Shots: 2529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal29

5Scoring chances12

0High-danger chances8

1.66Expected goals2.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	0–3	0–2	0.4–0.7
2nd	9–8	2–3	0–2	0.6–0.6
3rd	9–12	3–6	0–4	0.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:10	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: -0.33

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.66
GSAx: +0.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:06Kenny Connors (0–1)low · 32 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 16:31Penalty
1st 16:39Penalty
1st 19:00Penalty
2nd 15:23Penalty
2nd 15:23Penalty
3rd 4:27Koehn Ziemmer (0–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 15:51Penalty
3rd 16:15Ty Mueller (1–2)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 19:45Kenny Connors (1–3)empty net · high · 5 ft · beat Jiří Patera