Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals

1:3

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.13.0
High danger: 46
Chances: 511
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

5Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances6

2.07Expected goals3.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	1–5	1–2	0.5–1.5
2nd	9–6	2–2	2–2	0.9–0.6
3rd	12–10	2–4	1–2	0.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	18:45	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: +0.03

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.07
GSAx: +1.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:07Samuel Fagemo (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 5:33Penalty
1st 12:50Phillip Di Giuseppe (0–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 15:07Penalty
1st 16:07Penalty
1st 19:20Penalty
1st 19:20Penalty
2nd 6:01Nikita Chibrikov (0–3)low · 42 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 9:06Penalty
3rd 0:31Penalty
3rd 2:41Penalty
3rd 3:08Penalty
3rd 10:54Andreas Englund (1–3)low · 52 ft · beat Thomas Milic