Providence Bruins at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Providence Bruins

4:3

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

PROUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 2.62.3
High danger: 55
Chances: 79
Shots: 2522

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal22

7Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances5

2.56Expected goals2.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–10	0–3	0–1	0.4–1.0
2nd	12–6	6–4	4–2	1.9–0.7
3rd	6–6	1–2	1–2	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: -1.44

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: -0.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:05Penalty
1st 6:29Angus Crookshank (0–1)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 7:53Penalty
1st 13:09Penalty
1st 16:09Xavier Parent (0–2)low · 16 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 8:47Joey Abate (1–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 12:57Joey Abate (2–2)low · 22 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 18:24Penalty
2nd 19:56Alexis Gendron (3–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 19:21Victor Söderström (4–2)empty net · low · 104 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 19:53Angus Crookshank (4–3)high · 12 ft · beat Michael DiPietro