Springfield Thunderbirds at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:4

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

SPRLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 3.83.0
High danger: 95
Chances: 1411
Shots: 2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26

14Scoring chances11

9High-danger chances5

3.84Expected goals3.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–14	7–4	4–2	2.0–1.6
2nd	9–5	3–2	3–0	1.1–0.5
3rd	8–7	4–5	2–3	0.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.84
GSAx: +2.84

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: -0.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:12Penalty
1st 5:12Penalty
1st 11:11Hunter Skinner (1–0)grade A · backhand · rebound · 14 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 12:25Penalty
1st 14:39Penalty
1st 17:54Penalty
1st 18:31Penalty
1st 19:04Samuel Blais (1–1)5v4 · high · tip · 9 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 8:13Jared Davidson (1–2)medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 13:36Penalty
2nd 14:53Penalty
2nd 14:53Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
3rd 5:57Filip Mešár (1–3)medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 9:43Penalty
3rd 12:14Penalty
3rd 12:14Penalty
3rd 15:08Penalty
3rd 16:57Florian Xhekaj (1–4)empty net · high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko