AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 20

Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins
4:2
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
71%29%
xG
2.41.5
High danger
11
Chances
106
Shots
3222

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal22
10Scoring chances6
1High-danger chances1
2.40Expected goals1.52

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–44–11–01.0–0.3
2nd9–83–40–10.6–0.8
3rd10–103–10–00.7–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
2.40
GSAx
-1.60
Michal Postava
Shots faced
22
Saves
20
Allowed
2
xGA
1.52
GSAx
-0.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:14Penalty
  • 1st 10:23John Leonard (1–0)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 12:35Penalty
  • 1st 15:49Rem Pitlick (1–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Michal Postava
  • 2nd 4:16Penalty
  • 2nd 10:04Carter Mazur (2–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 16:54Joey Anderson (2–2)low · 33 ft · beat Michal Postava
  • 2nd 17:46Penalty
  • 3rd 0:33Penalty
  • 3rd 5:38Ondrej Becher (3–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 7:20Penalty
  • 3rd 9:40Penalty
  • 3rd 19:01Jakub Rychlovský (4–2)empty net · low · 157 ft · beat Drew Commesso