Ontario Reign at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Ontario Reign

1:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

ONTIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 1.92.8
High danger: 25
Chances: 810
Shots: 2126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal26

8Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

1.93Expected goals2.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–6	1–2	0–1	0.3–0.7
2nd	8–14	5–6	2–3	1.0–1.6
3rd	8–6	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: -1.18

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: +0.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:29Penalty
1st 2:29Penalty
1st 5:49Penalty
1st 15:03Penalty
2nd 3:07Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (0–1)low · 44 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 6:20Penalty
2nd 7:23Dylan Gambrell (0–2)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 9:35Matt Kiersted (0–3)low · 34 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 12:44Penalty
2nd 15:22Penalty
3rd 6:19Penalty
3rd 9:58Penalty
3rd 15:45Francesco Pinelli (1–3)low · 21 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 16:42Penalty
3rd 19:40Tyler Pitlick (1–4)empty net · low · 48 ft · beat Erik Portillo