AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 20

Bakersfield Condors at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Bakersfield Condors
4:7
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

BAKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
27%73%
xG
1.42.3
High danger
24
Chances
58
Shots
1924

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal24
5Scoring chances8
2High-danger chances4
1.36Expected goals2.34

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–122–52–20.5–1.2
2nd10–52–20–10.7–0.5
3rd3–71–10–10.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
23
Saves
17
Allowed
6
xGA
2.32
GSAx
-3.68
Tomas Suchanek
Shots faced
19
Saves
15
Allowed
4
xGA
1.36
GSAx
-2.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:52Judd Caulfield (0–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 3:45Isaac Howard (1–1)high · 20 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 1st 4:42Stian Solberg (1–2)low · 70 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 12:07Quinn Hutson (2–2)high · 12 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 1st 15:41Penalty
  • 1st 16:31Matthew Phillips (2–3)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 18:18Justin Bailey (2–4)high · 14 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 0:19Penalty
  • 2nd 11:01Matvey Petrov (3–4)low · 43 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 2nd 15:04Penalty
  • 2nd 17:39Tristan Luneau (3–5)low · 52 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 1:20Penalty
  • 3rd 2:31Penalty
  • 3rd 11:25Penalty
  • 3rd 14:31Nikita Nesterenko (3–6)low · 35 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 17:02Rhett Pitlick (4–6)medium · 11 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 3rd 19:06Cal Burke (4–7)empty net · low · 53 ft