AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 21

Tucson Roadrunners at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Tucson Roadrunners
4:3
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

TUCMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
3.32.2
High danger
33
Chances
128
Shots
3520

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal20
12Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances3
3.28Expected goals2.18

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–60–20–00.2–0.6
2nd15–54–10–10.9–0.4
3rd16–98–53–22.2–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB215:05 of the 3rd4:554:55+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
3.28
GSAx
-0.72
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
20
Saves
17
Allowed
3
xGA
2.18
GSAx
-0.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:12Penalty
  • 1st 3:12Penalty
  • 1st 15:40Jaret Anderson-Dolan (0–1)low · 32 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 16:04Penalty
  • 1st 19:37Penalty
  • 2nd 0:59Daniil But (1–1)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 8:01Andrew Agozzino (2–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 19:13Penalty
  • 3rd 2:55Walker Duehr (2–2)low · 46 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 5:20Penalty
  • 3rd 5:45Andrew Agozzino (3–2)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 8:29Penalty
  • 3rd 15:05Austin Poganski (4–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 17:33Penalty
  • 3rd 19:40Jaret Anderson-Dolan (4–3)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber