AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 21

Hartford Wolf Pack at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Hartford Wolf Pack
3:6
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

HFDTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
3.23.7
High danger
48
Chances
1014
Shots
3922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal22
10Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances8
3.22Expected goals3.75

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–62–31–10.7–1.1
2nd18–116–72–61.6–1.8
3rd14–52–41–11.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov
Shots faced
39
Saves
36
Allowed
3
xGA
3.22
GSAx
+0.22
Spencer Martin
Shots faced
22
Saves
16
Allowed
6
xGA
3.75
GSAx
-2.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:39Scott Morrow (1–0)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 1st 11:57Penalty
  • 1st 12:13Logan Shaw (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 1st 13:42Penalty
  • 1st 19:30Penalty
  • 2nd 0:37Logan Shaw (1–2)5v4 · high · 4 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 1:01Luke Haymes (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 3:03Brody Lamb (2–3)high · 13 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 5:40Penalty
  • 2nd 12:21Ben King (2–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 23 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 13:08Ryan Tverberg (2–5)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 18:44Penalty
  • 3rd 1:41Penalty
  • 3rd 5:44Penalty
  • 3rd 8:39Landon Sim (2–6)low · 23 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 3rd 14:21Penalty
  • 3rd 18:57Carey Terrance (3–6)high · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov