AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 21

Ontario Reign at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Ontario Reign
3:1
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

ONTIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
2.02.4
High danger
34
Chances
98
Shots
2527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal27
9Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances4
2.04Expected goals2.39

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–122–50–30.5–1.2
2nd10–114–32–10.9–0.9
3rd7–43–01–00.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
27
Saves
26
Allowed
1
xGA
2.39
GSAx
+1.39
William Rousseau
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.04
GSAx
-0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:02Penalty
  • 1st 4:02Penalty
  • 1st 7:19Penalty
  • 1st 8:35Gerry Mayhew (0–1)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 17:49Penalty
  • 2nd 13:37Penalty
  • 2nd 14:40Nikita Alexandrov (1–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 2nd 18:51Penalty
  • 3rd 4:55Penalty
  • 3rd 11:35Penalty
  • 3rd 15:43Martin Chromiak (2–1)medium · 6 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 3rd 16:00Penalty
  • 3rd 19:23Andre Lee (3–1)empty net · medium · 23 ft · beat William Rousseau