Grand Rapids Griffins at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:5

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

GRMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.23.3
High danger: 35
Chances: 614
Shots: 2435

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal35

6Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances5

2.24Expected goals3.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	1–2	0–2	0.4–0.7
2nd	8–17	3–6	2–2	1.1–1.4
3rd	9–11	2–6	1–1	0.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 30
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.32
GSAx: -1.68

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +0.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:48Penalty
1st 5:31Penalty
1st 9:33Penalty
2nd 3:05Jordan Oesterle (0–1)low · 21 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 3:38Penalty
2nd 5:29Carter Mazur (1–1)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 10:33Penalty
2nd 19:22Penalty
3rd 0:46John Leonard (2–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 3:11Kevin Gravel (2–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 4:41Penalty
3rd 5:51Jordan Oesterle (2–3)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 8:43Massimo Rizzo (2–4)medium · 23 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 15:18Penalty
3rd 17:12Penalty
3rd 19:58Cole O’Hara (2–5)empty net · medium · 13 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa