AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 21

Springfield Thunderbirds at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Springfield Thunderbirds
5:3
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

SPRBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
54%46%
xG
2.42.6
High danger
53
Chances
1011
Shots
2226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal26
10Scoring chances11
5High-danger chances3
2.43Expected goals2.60

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–75–43–21.2–0.9
2nd11–44–22–11.1–0.4
3rd1–151–50–00.1–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Will Cranley
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
2.60
GSAx
-0.40
Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
13
Saves
8
Allowed
5
xGA
1.64
GSAx
-3.36
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
9
Saves
9
Allowed
0
xGA
0.79
GSAx
+0.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:28Penalty
  • 1st 1:48Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (1–0)4v5 · high · backhand · 13 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 4:18Penalty
  • 1st 5:31Dylan Peterson (2–0)4v5 · high · snap · 18 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 7:48Tyler Boucher (2–1)medium · backhand · 17 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 1st 10:25Penalty
  • 1st 14:18Penalty
  • 1st 16:24Juraj Pekarcik (3–1)medium · snap · 16 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 18:57Penalty
  • 1st 18:57Penalty
  • 2nd 0:55Samuel Bolduc (3–2)low · wrist · 54 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 2nd 1:21Penalty
  • 2nd 1:21Penalty
  • 2nd 1:50Dylan Peterson (4–2)high · wrist · 4 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 5:42Dillon Dube (5–2)medium · wrist · 14 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 17:39Penalty
  • 3rd 2:42Penalty
  • 3rd 3:15Penalty
  • 3rd 9:41Penalty
  • 3rd 13:37Penalty
  • 3rd 16:45Penalty
  • 3rd 17:45Carter Yakemchuk (5–3)5v4 · medium · snap · 22 ft · beat Will Cranley