Utica Comets at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Utica Comets

2:5

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

UTCPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.13.0
High danger: 54
Chances: 911
Shots: 2033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal33

9Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances4

2.08Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	2–3	0–2	0.6–0.9
2nd	11–11	6–4	5–1	1.3–1.0
3rd	3–12	1–4	0–1	0.2–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 28
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: -2.04

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 18
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.08
GSAx: +0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:30Jake Schmaltz (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 1:44Penalty
1st 1:44Penalty
1st 5:57Penalty
1st 9:24Penalty
1st 12:09Penalty
1st 15:23Penalty
1st 19:33Penalty
2nd 3:22Penalty
2nd 3:22Penalty
2nd 7:38Penalty
2nd 7:38Penalty
2nd 7:38Penalty
2nd 11:41Jonathan Gruden (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 12:06Penalty
2nd 18:51Penalty
3rd 0:52Georgii Merkulov (1–2)low · 20 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 8:12Riley Duran (1–3)medium · 29 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 12:33Riley Tufte (1–4)low · 13 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 13:40Mike Hardman (2–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
3rd 16:52Riley Tufte (2–5)medium · rebound · 38 ft · beat Jakub Málek