Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs

4:2

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 2.04.0
High danger: 36
Chances: 715
Shots: 2238

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal38

7Scoring chances15

3High-danger chances6

1.95Expected goals3.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–11	4–1	0–0	1.2–0.7
2nd	2–19	0–9	0–4	0.1–2.4
3rd	5–8	3–5	3–2	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	0:19 of the 3rd	19:41	19:41	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 36
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.99
GSAx: +1.99

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -2.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:39Penalty
1st 4:39Penalty
1st 11:36Chase Dafoe (1–0)low · 62 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 15:02Chase Dafoe (2–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 15:27Penalty
1st 19:19Penalty
2nd 3:05Penalty
2nd 3:44Penalty
2nd 4:26Penalty
2nd 11:35Penalty
2nd 11:35Penalty
3rd 0:19Brett Seney (3–0)high · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 2:36Penalty
3rd 4:14Penalty
3rd 6:28Penalty
3rd 11:00Penalty
3rd 12:42Noel Gunler (3–1)5v4 · high · 5 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 16:27Rem Pitlick (4–1)empty net · low · 104 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 17:12Penalty
3rd 18:46Josiah Slavin (4–2)4v5 · high · 21 ft · beat Drew Commesso