AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 21

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Coachella Valley Firebirds
5:2
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CVCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
2.02.0
High danger
41
Chances
107
Shots
2127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal27
10Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances1
2.04Expected goals2.03

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–73–21–10.7–0.6
2nd5–103–12–00.6–0.6
3rd7–104–41–00.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−4−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL40:00 of the 3rd20:0014:36+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.03
GSAx
+0.03
Trent Miner
Shots faced
14
Saves
13
Allowed
1
xGA
1.46
GSAx
+0.46
Kyle Keyser
Shots faced
7
Saves
3
Allowed
4
xGA
0.58
GSAx
-3.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:07Ville Ottavainen (1–0)low · 60 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 1st 7:02Carson Rehkopf (2–0)low · 66 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 1st 11:08J.R. Avon (3–0)high · 10 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 1st 11:35Penalty
  • 1st 11:41Penalty
  • 1st 14:44Penalty
  • 1st 14:44Kaden Hammell (4–0)low · 59 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 2nd 1:37Penalty
  • 2nd 6:23Penalty
  • 2nd 6:23Penalty
  • 2nd 9:10Penalty
  • 2nd 9:10Penalty
  • 2nd 9:10Penalty
  • 2nd 15:56Penalty
  • 3rd 1:17Penalty
  • 3rd 3:13Taylor Makar (4–1)5v4 · low · 17 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 6:45Sean Behrens (4–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 8:53Penalty
  • 3rd 10:13Penalty
  • 3rd 11:35Penalty
  • 3rd 13:12Jagger Firkus (5–2)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Trent Miner