Calgary Wranglers at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Calgary Wranglers

0:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CGYBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 1.71.5
High danger: 23
Chances: 44
Shots: 2220

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal20

4Scoring chances4

2High-danger chances3

1.71Expected goals1.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–6	2–1	1–0	0.8–0.4
2nd	3–10	0–2	0–2	0.2–0.8
3rd	10–4	2–1	1–1	0.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calvin Pickard

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 22
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: +1.71

Arsenii Sergeev

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.46
GSAx: +0.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:27Penalty
1st 1:27Penalty
1st 1:54Penalty
1st 9:05Penalty
1st 10:15Penalty
2nd 0:33Penalty
2nd 0:33Penalty
2nd 1:28Atro Leppänen (0–1)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
2nd 12:50Penalty
2nd 17:56Penalty
3rd 12:32Penalty
3rd 13:19Penalty
3rd 16:28Penalty