AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 22

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
4:3
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

WBSTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
71%29%
xG
2.01.8
High danger
52
Chances
85
Shots
1720

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal20
8Scoring chances5
5High-danger chances2
1.98Expected goals1.77

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–45–12–01.0–0.4
2nd5–92–32–20.8–1.0
3rd3–71–11–00.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR30:00 of the 3rd20:0014:59+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist
Shots faced
20
Saves
17
Allowed
3
xGA
1.77
GSAx
-1.23
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
17
Saves
13
Allowed
4
xGA
1.98
GSAx
-2.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:29Penalty
  • 1st 5:09Avery Hayes (1–0)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 15:17Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (2–0)high · 19 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 16:54Aidan McDonough (3–0)low · 47 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 18:02Penalty
  • 2nd 1:59Penalty
  • 2nd 8:17Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (4–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 9:03Ben King (4–1)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
  • 2nd 17:57Penalty
  • 2nd 17:57Penalty
  • 3rd 9:54Penalty
  • 3rd 10:18Alex Nylander (4–2)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
  • 3rd 13:46Alex Nylander (4–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
  • 3rd 15:02Penalty
  • 3rd 15:02Penalty