Bridgeport Islanders at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

6:3

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

BRIHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.61.6
High danger: 53
Chances: 94
Shots: 2625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances4

5High-danger chances3

2.61Expected goals1.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	3–2	2–2	0.7–0.8
2nd	10–6	5–0	2–0	1.2–0.3
3rd	8–7	1–2	1–1	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	19:31	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.60
GSAx: -1.40

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 13
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -3.03

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 7
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.64
GSAx: -0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:30Penalty
1st 9:14Adam Beckman (1–0)high · 9 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 16:30Penalty
1st 16:37Penalty
2nd 2:37Leon Muggli (1–1)low · 39 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 2:52Penalty
2nd 2:52Penalty
2nd 2:52Penalty
2nd 2:52Penalty
2nd 11:16Cam Thiesing (2–1)low · 30 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 12:17Liam Foudy (3–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 16:44Joey Larson (4–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 19:34Adam Beckman (5–1)low · 31 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 4:58Corey Schueneman (5–2)low · 58 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 9:10Penalty
3rd 11:40Jon McDonald (5–3)low · 36 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 12:40Penalty
3rd 12:53Ethan Bear (6–3)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Mitch Gibson