Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

1:4

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 2.62.0
High danger: 54
Chances: 107
Shots: 3223

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal23

10Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances4

2.63Expected goals2.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	5–4	2–2	1.0–1.0
2nd	14–6	2–1	0–0	0.8–0.4
3rd	9–7	3–2	3–2	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Owen Flores

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: +1.63

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: -1.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:14Kevin Lombardi (0–1)low · tip · 19 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 6:34Penalty
1st 9:55Kevin Lombardi (0–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 12:08Penalty
2nd 5:05Penalty
2nd 9:53Joey Anderson (0–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Michal Postava
2nd 13:38Eduards Tralmaks (1–3)medium · rebound · 47 ft · beat Owen Flores
2nd 19:26Penalty
2nd 19:26Penalty
3rd 2:05Penalty
3rd 18:49Jamie Engelbert (1–4)empty net · high · 20 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 19:13Penalty