AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 22

Calgary Wranglers at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Calgary Wranglers
4:5
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

CGYSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
11%89%
xG
1.12.8
High danger
03
Chances
312
Shots
2330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal30
3Scoring chances12
0High-danger chances3
1.08Expected goals2.84

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–110–40–20.2–1.2
2nd10–102–50–10.6–1.0
3rd6–91–30–00.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arsenii Sergeev
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
2.84
GSAx
-2.16
Calle Clang
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
1.08
GSAx
-2.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:32Penalty
  • 1st 9:57Nathan Gaucher (0–1)low · 46 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 1st 10:58Ryan Carpenter (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 1st 12:09Penalty
  • 1st 12:09Penalty
  • 1st 19:17Penalty
  • 2nd 2:04Nathan Gaucher (0–3)high · 9 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 2:09Penalty
  • 2nd 2:56Penalty
  • 2nd 8:37Penalty
  • 2nd 10:37Cal Burke (0–4)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 14:41Carter King (1–4)medium · 22 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 15:10Clark Bishop (2–4)medium · 14 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 16:04Dryden Hunt (3–4)low · 30 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 12:29Penalty
  • 3rd 14:27Penalty
  • 3rd 19:13Nathan Gaucher (3–5)empty net · low · 53 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 3rd 19:59Sam Morton (4–5)low · 41 ft · beat Calle Clang