Tucson Roadrunners at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Tucson Roadrunners

4:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

TUCMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 2.61.8
High danger: 52
Chances: 86
Shots: 3121

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal21

8Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances2

2.58Expected goals1.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–13	4–6	3–2	1.0–1.4
2nd	9–4	1–0	1–0	0.5–0.1
3rd	14–4	3–0	1–0	1.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	5:48 of the 3rd	14:12	14:12	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: -1.42

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: +0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:15Danny Zhilkin (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 7:31Penalty
1st 10:03Austin Poganski (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 14:30Penalty
1st 19:06Penalty
2nd 0:53Austin Poganski (2–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 5:30Penalty
2nd 12:23Scott Perunovich (3–1)low · 20 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 16:40Penalty
3rd 2:36Penalty
3rd 5:48Michal Kunc (4–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 19:00Penalty