Manitoba Moose at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Manitoba Moose

1:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

MBTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 2.31.3
High danger: 21
Chances: 105
Shots: 3019

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal19

10Scoring chances5

2High-danger chances1

2.28Expected goals1.28

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–4	5–2	2–0	1.0–0.4
2nd	7–7	2–1	0–1	0.6–0.4
3rd	10–8	3–2	0–0	0.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	15:57	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: +1.28

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 9
Allowed: 4
xGA: 0.93
GSAx: -3.07

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 6
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.35
GSAx: +0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:28Penalty
1st 7:51Ryan Tverberg (0–1)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 5:00Alex Nylander (0–2)high · 18 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 7:02Penalty
2nd 17:41John Prokop (0–3)low · 72 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 18:57Penalty
3rd 3:57Isaak Phillips (1–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 8:00Reese Johnson (1–4)medium · 22 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 8:55Penalty