AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 25

Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins
2:1
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
81%19%
xG
4.32.4
High danger
95
Chances
168
Shots
4126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal26
16Scoring chances8
9High-danger chances5
4.29Expected goals2.41

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st18–106–44–31.9–1.1
2nd8–55–23–01.0–0.5
3rd15–115–22–21.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Will Cranley
Shots faced
41
Saves
39
Allowed
2
xGA
4.29
GSAx
+2.29
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
26
Saves
25
Allowed
1
xGA
2.41
GSAx
+1.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:10Penalty
  • 1st 3:10Penalty
  • 1st 3:10Penalty
  • 1st 8:59Penalty
  • 1st 11:52Riley Tufte (1–0)grade A · 4 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 2nd 4:55Penalty
  • 2nd 9:24Penalty
  • 2nd 13:57Julien Gauthier (1–1)medium · 7 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 17:06Penalty
  • 3rd 3:56Jake Schmaltz (2–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 3rd 5:21Penalty
  • 3rd 8:49Penalty
  • 3rd 16:03Penalty