AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 25

Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers
2:5
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
2.56.3
High danger
414
Chances
1221
Shots
2439

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0246P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 69% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal39
12Scoring chances21
4High-danger chances14
2.51Expected goals6.26

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–97–34–21.4–0.9
2nd9–132–80–60.6–2.8
3rd6–173–100–60.5–2.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arsenii Sergeev
Shots faced
39
Saves
34
Allowed
5
xGA
6.26
GSAx
+1.26
Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
2.51
GSAx
+0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:03Penalty
  • 1st 8:24Penalty
  • 1st 9:05Dryden Hunt (1–0)high · 6 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 9:22Penalty
  • 1st 17:24Penalty
  • 1st 17:24Penalty
  • 1st 17:24Penalty
  • 2nd 1:54Jani Nyman (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 4:14Nick Cicek (2–1)low · 40 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 8:59Penalty
  • 2nd 14:30Ty Nelson (2–2)low · 45 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 18:43Eduard Šalé (2–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 19:49Penalty
  • 3rd 1:03Penalty
  • 3rd 1:57Penalty
  • 3rd 2:15Logan Morrison (2–4)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 3rd 8:51Penalty
  • 3rd 8:51Penalty
  • 3rd 12:48Penalty
  • 3rd 14:11Penalty
  • 3rd 19:26Jani Nyman (2–5)empty net · low · 126 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty