Texas Stars at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Texas Stars

3:2

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

TEXSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.43.1
High danger: 33
Chances: 712
Shots: 3435

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal35

7Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances3

3.37Expected goals3.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–15	4–5	1–2	1.6–1.5
2nd	11–7	2–4	2–1	1.2–0.7
3rd	7–13	1–3	0–0	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.07
GSAx: +1.07

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:26Jack Becker (1–0)low · 23 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 10:36Penalty
1st 10:44Colin White (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 11:03Penalty
1st 13:23Penalty
1st 18:53Penalty
1st 18:53Penalty
1st 18:53Penalty
2nd 2:45Penalty
2nd 6:41Penalty
2nd 14:38Penalty
2nd 19:35Egor Afanasyev (1–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 2:57Penalty
3rd 7:08Penalty
3rd 10:12Luke Krys (2–2)low · 58 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 14:26Penalty
3rd 16:32Kole Lind (3–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit