Ontario Reign at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Ontario Reign

1:3

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ONTHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.32.9
High danger: 44
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2231

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal31

10Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances4

2.30Expected goals2.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–9	4–6	3–1	1.1–1.1
2nd	8–9	4–1	1–0	0.8–0.4
3rd	8–13	2–6	0–3	0.5–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: -0.12

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: +1.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:09Penalty
1st 10:09Penalty
1st 16:53Penalty
2nd 5:06Penalty
2nd 19:12Penalty
2nd 19:12Penalty
3rd 1:53Penalty
3rd 2:22Francesco Pinelli (1–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 10 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 5:59Penalty
3rd 6:19Penalty
3rd 6:57Lukas Cormier (1–1)5v4 · high · snap · 29 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 7:37Penalty
3rd 8:52Jakub Brabenec (1–2)4v5 · low · wrist · 44 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 19:00Tanner Laczynski (1–3)empty net · low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Erik Portillo