AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 27

Hershey Bears at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Hershey Bears
4:3
Final
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

HERSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
32%68%
xG
2.13.4
High danger
45
Chances
1115
Shots
2435

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal35
11Scoring chances15
4High-danger chances5
2.13Expected goals3.43

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–111–50–10.3–1.1
2nd14–96–43–21.2–1.0
3rd4–154–61–20.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SYR−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SYR212:09 of the 3rd7:516:52+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitch Gibson
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
3.43
GSAx
+0.43
Brandon Halverson
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.13
GSAx
-1.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:55Penalty
  • 2nd 5:08Penalty
  • 2nd 7:16Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–0)high · 15 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 2nd 9:33Andrew Cristall (2–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 2nd 9:55Penalty
  • 2nd 9:55Penalty
  • 2nd 9:55Penalty
  • 2nd 10:45Brett Leason (3–0)4v5 · high · 27 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 2nd 14:38Penalty
  • 2nd 15:02Dylan Duke (3–1)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 15:30Penalty
  • 2nd 15:30Penalty
  • 2nd 16:03Conor Geekie (3–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 3rd 6:35Alex Suzdalev (4–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 3rd 8:07Penalty
  • 3rd 11:00Penalty
  • 3rd 15:57Penalty
  • 3rd 15:57Penalty
  • 3rd 15:57Matthew Peca (4–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Mitch Gibson