Manitoba Moose at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Manitoba Moose

0:5

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

MBBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 2.12.9
High danger: 17
Chances: 512
Shots: 2627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal27

5Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances7

2.06Expected goals2.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	2–3	1–2	0.9–0.7
2nd	8–10	2–4	0–2	0.6–1.0
3rd	8–10	1–5	0–3	0.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: -2.13

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 26
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: +2.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:27Penalty
1st 12:29Penalty
1st 12:33Penalty
1st 16:18Tomas Hamara (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 17:59Arthur Kaliyev (0–2)high · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 18:41Arthur Kaliyev (0–3)high · 21 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 12:49Penalty
3rd 0:26Philippe Daoust (0–4)high · 20 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 11:09Arthur Kaliyev (0–5)5v4 · medium · 46 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 12:10Penalty