AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 27

Springfield Thunderbirds at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds
5:3
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

SPRLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
3.52.3
High danger
54
Chances
149
Shots
3221

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal21
14Scoring chances9
5High-danger chances4
3.48Expected goals2.30

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–105–22–21.4–0.8
2nd9–24–11–00.8–0.2
3rd11–95–62–21.3–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

LV−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
LV212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov
Shots faced
32
Saves
27
Allowed
5
xGA
3.49
GSAx
-1.51
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
2.30
GSAx
-0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:28Dillon Dube (1–0)low · 53 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 1st 11:45Anthony Richard (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 15:46Penalty
  • 1st 18:08Penalty
  • 2nd 7:09Chris Wagner (2–1)low · 31 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 2nd 7:35Penalty
  • 2nd 10:09Penalty
  • 2nd 19:14Penalty
  • 2nd 19:14Penalty
  • 2nd 19:14Penalty
  • 3rd 6:32Zayde Wisdom (2–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 9:08Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (3–2)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 11:18Penalty
  • 3rd 11:18Penalty
  • 3rd 11:18Penalty
  • 3rd 11:18Juraj Pekarcik (4–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 13:36Hugh McGing (5–2)low · 35 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 17:44Oscar Eklind (5–3)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 19:02Penalty