Toronto Marlies at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Toronto Marlies

2:5

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

TORROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.33.4
High danger: 35
Chances: 612
Shots: 2937

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal37

6Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances5

2.25Expected goals3.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	2–3	1–2	0.7–0.9
2nd	11–14	4–3	2–1	1.2–1.0
3rd	8–13	0–6	0–2	0.3–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 32
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: -1.63

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +0.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:33Carson Meyer (0–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 5:51Matteo Costantini (0–2)high · 8 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 6:06Penalty
1st 9:15Penalty
2nd 8:01Anton Wahlberg (0–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 10:16Penalty
2nd 13:34Landon Sim (1–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 14:32Penalty
2nd 16:20Borya Valis (2–3)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 18:59Penalty
3rd 1:02Penalty
3rd 2:32Trevor Kuntar (2–4)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 7:30Penalty
3rd 14:19Penalty
3rd 15:09Penalty
3rd 18:58Penalty
3rd 18:58Penalty
3rd 18:58Riley Fiddler-Schultz (2–5)empty net · low · 115 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby