Texas Stars at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Texas Stars

3:4

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TEXBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

11%89%

xG: 1.95.5
High danger: 211
Chances: 723
Shots: 2544

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal44

7Scoring chances23

2High-danger chances11

1.94Expected goals5.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–13	2–4	1–2	0.6–1.2
2nd	7–16	2–10	0–4	0.5–2.2
3rd	9–15	3–9	1–5	0.8–2.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	5:26	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 40
Allowed: 4
xGA: 5.53
GSAx: +1.53

Calvin Pickard

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -1.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:39James Hamblin (0–1)medium · wrist · 15 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 11:42Isaac Howard (0–2)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 15:12Tristan Bertucci (1–2)low · wrist · 61 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
2nd 0:52Jérémie Poirier (2–2)low · wrist · 69 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
2nd 1:19Sam Poulin (2–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 5 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 1:32Penalty
2nd 5:24Penalty
2nd 7:37Penalty
2nd 18:24Penalty
3rd 11:23Viljami Marjala (2–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 13:48Penalty
3rd 14:31Luke Krys (3–4)4v5 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 21 ft · beat Calvin Pickard